Flooding Rains For Some, Worsening Drought For Others

Dry weather continued to plague the West last week, worsening drought conditions. Meanwhile, parts of the eastern two-thirds of the nation dealt with soggy weather, including catastrophic flash flooding in the south-central U.S. and a landfalling tropical storm in the East.

West
As the North American monsoon season starts up, locally heavy rainfall was seen across parts of the Desert Southwest last week, allowing for improving drought. However, dry weather prevailed for the rest of the West last week. Drought expanded and intensified across the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West as a result.

Based on rapidly declining soil moisture and lowering streamflows, there was an expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate to severe (D1-D2) drought across Oregon and Washington. Extreme drought (D3) was expanded to include more of northern Idaho. An area of severe drought (D2) was also added to southern Idaho. Parts of Utah also had a few areas with degradations to severe drought (D2) based on streamflows, soil moisture and high evaporative demand recently. A dry end to the west season, mounting precipitation deficits and low soil moisture supported an expansion of abnormal dryness across northern and central California.

Conversely, minor improvements were warranted for parts of north-central and eastern Montana given recent precipitation along with timely wetness back to the late spring. There was also a small reduction in extreme drought (D3) for eastern and southern Arizona. Severe and extreme drought (D2-D3) was trimmed back in eastern New Mexico, while exceptional drought (D4) was slightly reduced in southwestern New Mexico.
 
High Plains
Another round of heavy rain occurred across parts of the High Plains last week, with parts of the central High Plains picking up 1 to 2 inches or more of rain this week. Drought coverage and intensity continued to decline throughout the High Plains since spring with additional heavy rain over the past week. Though, some areas did miss out on the beneficial rain, including western Wyoming, North Dakota and eastern Kansas.

Abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) improved across most of South Dakota, Nebraska, northern Kansas, eastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. While rain was lighter, parts of southwestern Colorado saw a reduction in moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3).

Moderate drought (D1) expanded across northeastern North Dakota. Two areas of severe drought (D2) were added to northwestern Wyoming. Abnormal dryness was also added to northeastern Kansas near the Kansas City, Mo., area.
 
Midwest
Any rainfall was hit-or-miss across the Midwest this past week. Significant rainfall occurred in parts of eastern Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Minnesota, with 1.5 to 2 inches or more. Heavier rain fell in parts of eastern Lower Michigan. For the rest of Midwest, it was a drier week. With increasing precipitation deficits, worsening soil moisture and pasture conditions and added crop stress, Degradations occurred for parts of northern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, western Ohio and northwestern Kentucky.

Abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) was reduced in coverage across northern Minnesota. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D1) improved in eastern and southern Iowa as well as southern Wisconsin.

Meanwhile, an area of severe drought (D2) was added to northwestern Illinois, while abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D1) expanded across the rest of northern and central Illinois. Moderate drought (D1) was added to southwestern Michigan, while abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D1) increased in coverage across northern Indiana. Abnormal dryness expanded in west-central and northern Missouri (near the Kansas City, Mo., area), while abnormal dryness was added to northwestern Kentucky, east-central Indiana and west-central Ohio.
 
South
Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall occurred in parts of Texas this past week, including in Kerry County where catastrophic flash floods killed at least 95 people with at least 150 people still missing. The heaviest rain occurred across the Edwards Plateau and south-central Texas. Here, most places saw 5 to 10 inches of rain, while heavier amounts of 12 to 18 inches fell. Significant improvements occurred to abnormally dry and drought conditions this week. However, long-term drought dating back multiple years remains across south central Texas.

Abnormal dryness and moderate to exceptional (D1-D4) drought were reduced significantly in south-central Texas. Abnormal dryness and moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3) were also improved in southwestern Texas.

Drier weather was generally seen across the rest of the South this past week. Abnormal dryness was added to southwestern Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, southeastern Louisiana and eastern Tennessee. No short- or long-term drought is noted elsewhere though.
 
Southeast
Beneficial rain and thunderstorms were seen throughout the Florida Peninsula as the summer sea breeze pattern continues. This allowed for widespread improvements to abnormally dry and drought conditions. At the same time, dry weather occurred for the rest of the region. The exception was heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Chantal. However, this valuable rainfall occurred across the drought-free areas of North Carolina.

Moderate drought (D1) was trimmed significantly across central and eastern Florida. The heaviest rain, though, missed southeastern Florida. There was some expansion of severe drought (D2) as a result. Pockets of abnormal dryness were also added to southeastern Alabama, northeastern Georgia, central South Carolina and far south-central North Carolina.
 
Northeast
The start of last week got off on a quiet note for the Northeast, but things quickly turned soggy and unsettled towards the end of the week. This was due to a combination of cold front as well as the passage of remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Chantal.

Nearly all of the Northeast remains drought free with only a couple of small long-term drought areas designated across northeastern Maryland and southeastern Massachusetts. Increasing precipitation and abnormal normal temperatures supported the expansion of abnormal dryness across eastern Massachusetts and southeastern New Hampshire.
 
Looking Ahead Through July 14th
A series of passing cold fronts will impact the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. during this time. There will also be plenty of moisture funneled into areas east of the Rockies. Expect daily or almost daily chances for rain and thunderstorms on the central and eastern U.S. The best chance looks to be in the South, Southeast and Northeast. Slow-moving, repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rain will be possible for all areas though, which could lead to some flooding concerns. Most areas will likely see improvements to abnormal dryness and drought conditions in next week’s drought update. Isolated degradations are still possible for areas that miss out on the heaviest rain.

At the same time, high pressure has no plans of leaving the Western U.S. Dry weather will persist, which will continue to cause degradations to abnormally dry and drought conditions.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor