Newly Formed Tropical System Eyes E. Mexico Landfall

The Atlantic tropical season is ramping up in the final days of June with a newly formed tropical system in the Bay of Campeche. While short-lived, it will drop plenty of rainfall over eastern Mexico.

As of 4 a.m. CDT, Tropical Depression #2 was located near 19.9 N and 95.9 W, or about 50 miles north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico, or 125 miles southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have increased slightly to 35 mph, but it remains a weak, disorganized system as it moves to the west-northwest at 9 mph. Its minimum pressure is 1010 mb, or 29.83 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan to Tecolutla. This means that tropical storm conditions, or winds greater than 39 mph, are expected in the next 36 hours.

TD2 remains in the western Bay of Campeche this morning and will eventually make more of a turn to the northwest later today. As it inches towards eastern Mexico, TD2 will move over a favorable environment of warm sea surface temperatures and weak winds. While some slight strengthening is expected, there will be limited intensification given its poor structure currently and limited time over water. Most likely, this will become the second tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season later today and would be given the name “Barry” when this occurs.

With a northwesterly track, this system will move inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight. The center will mostly likely come ashore near Cabo Rojo, which is about 300 miles to the south of the U.S./Mexico border. The system will quickly dissipate over the rugged terrain of eastern Mexico on Monday.

The greatest concern from this system will be heavy rainfall. Totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected across the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas through Monday. There could also be isolated rainfall totals up to 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.

The strongest winds are expected to occur to the north of the center along the coast this afternoon through early Monday.

Although the U.S. is not at risk from this tropical system, its development serves as a beacon that it is time to prepare for the hurricane season. Create a hurricane evacuation box now, before the storm, with bottled water, extra cell phone chargers, food and clothing. Scope out multiple different evacuation routes, in case your preferred route is blocked or traffic jammed.
 
The Atlantic hurricane season, which officially started on June 1, has been slowly ramping up, as last week saw the short-lived Tropical Storm Andrea in the central Atlantic. This is about in line with climatology, as June typically has only a couple of named storms.